Malawi’s water is under severe pressure from all sides: the country supports an agri-based economy, increasing industrialisation and hydroelectric power generation for its electrical needs, all while facing environmental degradation such as deforestation and the resulting climate change. High population growth numbers have resulted in increased water demand for domestic and municipal use, irrigation, tourism, mining, manufacturing and water transportation. While the country has made tremendous efforts to conserve, allocate and utilise water resources in the face of these threats, the challenges are intensifying. Dr Brighton Austin Chunga proposes the unique idea of futuristic thinking by holistically predicting the basin closure of crucial catchment areas.

By predicting when a catchment will no longer be able to supply water to meet social and environmental needs, the project will produce evidence on which the catchment restoration and protection actions will be based. Currently, such measures are implemented with minimal scientific proof and provide primarily short-term answers to real water supply problems for human consumption and ecosystem support.

After carefully assessing the catchments and analysing the river basin closures, catchments will be classified as either closed, nearing closure or open, and resources will be allocated accordingly. The object of the exercise is to simulate and predict river basin closure of hotspot catchments and devise restoration programmes to ensure water security for social and economic development. For this purpose, the study assess upstream and downstream movements within catchments that lead to conflicts in water demand. The project will develop and perform computerised hydrological models to simulate the characteristics of the river basins. This will enable researchers to run system dynamics simulations to understand future water resource scenarios in the targeted river basins.